Category Archives: membership

PC(USA) 221st General Assembly — Actions Related To Marriage

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Yesterday afternoon the 221st General Assembly of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) considered the report of Committee 10 – Civil Union and Marriage Issues. Here is a brief summary of the four basic actions that the General Assembly took.

[10-07] On Creating a Task Force to Identify Common Ground and Reconcilable Differences with Respect to Same-Gender Marriage
The first item to be considered came as a overture from Eastern Korean Presbytery requesting a Task Force whose charge it would be to

a. identify common ground and reconcilable differences in biblical understanding and confessional interpretation with respect to same-gender marriage;

b. study the nature, scope, and controversies of the same-gender marriage laws legalized in certain states;

c. assess the impact of such laws and related sociopolitical changes on the ministry and mission of the church;

d. provide the local presbyteries and congregations with theological guidelines for
their ministry, as to understand and apply the concepts and functions
of family and parenting based on biblical norms and ethics; and

e. bring forth practical and futuristic recommendations that would not
only strengthen and promote unity within the church, but also solidify
ministries and missions with ecumenical partners locally and globally.

The Task Force would report back two GA’s from now in 2018.

The Committee recommended disapproval and there was a minority report advocating approval of this request. After some discussion, a lot focusing on whether the PC(USA) needed four more years to study this, the substitute motion was not made the main motion by a vote of 237 to 372 and the Committee recommendation was approved 401 to 185.

[10-03] On Issuing an Authoritative Interpretation of W-4.9000 to Affirm Pastoral Discretion in Performing Marriage Ceremonies

The next item was this Authoritative Interpretation that would permit pastors in jurisdictions that recognized same-sex marriages to perform those ceremonies. The core line in the AI reads, with the amendment:

[W]hen a couple requests the involvement of the church in solemnizing their marriage as permitted by the laws [of the civil jurisdiction in which the marriage is to take place] [of the place where the couple seek to be married], teaching elders have the pastoral responsibility to assess the capabilities, intentions, and readiness of the couple to be married (W-4.9002), and the freedom of conscience in the interpretation of Scripture (G-2.0105) to participate in any such marriage they believe the Holy Spirit calls them to perform.

The AI would also permit the use of church facilities with the consent of the session.

This debate began with a point of order as to whether this item was out of order under Roberts Rules of Order because it was in conflict with the definition of marriage as found in the Book of Confessions.

Just as when this point arose at the 220th General Assembly, the Moderator turned to the Clerk who suggested that the Assembly receive advice from the Assembly Committee on the Constitution. In 2012, the ACC’s response was along the lines of the narrative found in the front material to the Book of Confessions in the Confessional Nature of the Church Report. At one point the Report says “Nevertheless, for Reformed Christians all confessional statements have only a provisional, temporary, relative authority.” In other words, while important the multiple confessions need to be considered as a body of work and individual points not singled out from the who body.

At this General Assembly the ACC advice took a different direction. The advice was essentially that this action and the confessions are in tension and that it is the responsibility and within the authority of the GA to resolve that tension. Within the ensuing discussion is was observed that in their original advice on the overture the ACC said:

The Advisory Committee on the Constitution advises that the 221st General Assembly (2014) disapprove Item 10-03

[snip]

Section W-4.9001 and related citations (W-4.9002a, W-4.9004,
W-4.9006) limit marriage to couples who are “a woman and a man.” Because
these statements are clear and unambiguous, they can not be interpreted
in a manner that is inconsistent with their plain and ordinary meaning.

When asked about this the ACC response was essentially the same as was previously given – that the Assembly could deal with this tension.

The Moderator ruled the item was in order, the commissioner challenged the ruling of the Moderator and after some significant discussion over the nature of the point of order the Moderator’s ruling was sustained.

With that out of the way the item was debated and the debate was generally civil and respectful. One of the things about this Assembly seems to be the number of times that points of debate are incorporated into questions from the floor. When debate was closed and the vote taken the commissioners voted 371 to 238 to approve the AI.

[10-02] On Amending W-4.9000, Marriage

This item is based on an overture from the Presbytery of Cascades with 16 concurrences. The proposed new wording of W-4.9000, as amended mostly by the committee but slightly on the floor, would be:

“Marriage is a gift God has given to all humankind for the well-being of the entire human family. Marriage involves a unique commitment between two people, traditionally a man and a women, to love and support each other for the rest of their lives. The sacrificial love that unites the couple sustains them as faithful and
responsible members of the church and the wider community.

“In civil law, marriage is a contract that recognizes the
rights and obligations of the married couple in society. In the
Reformed tradition, marriage is also a covenant in which God has an
active part, and which the community of faith publicly witnesses and
acknowledges.

“If they meet the requirements of the civil jurisdiction
in which they intend to marry, a couple may request that a service of
Christian marriage be conducted by a teaching elder in the Presbyterian
Church (U.S.A.), who is authorized, though not required, to act as an
agent of the civil jurisdiction in recording the marriage contract. A
couple requesting a service of Christian marriage shall receive
instruction from the teaching elder, who shall agree to the couple’s
request only if, in the judgment of the teaching elder, the couple
demonstrate sufficient understanding of the nature of the marriage
covenant and commitment to living their lives together according to its
values. In making this decision, the teaching elder may seek the counsel
of the session, which has authority to permit or deny the use of church
property for a marriage service.

“The marriage service shall be conducted in a manner
appropriate to this covenant and to the forms of Reformed worship, under
the direction of the teaching elder and the supervision of the session
(W-1.4004–.4006). In a service of marriage, the couple marry each other
by exchanging mutual promises. The teaching elder witnesses the couple’s
promises and pronounces God’s blessing upon their union. The community
of faith pledges to support the couple in upholding their promises;
prayers may be offered for the couple, for the communities that support
them, and for all who seek to live in faithfulness.

“If they meet
the requirements of the civil jurisdiction in which they intend to
marry, a couple may request that a service of Christian marriage be
conducted by a teaching elder in the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.), who
is authorized, though not required, to act as an agent of the civil
jurisdiction in recording the marriage contract. A couple requesting a
service of Christian marriage shall receive instruction from the
teaching elder, who may agree to the couple’s
request only if, in the judgment of the teaching elder, the couple
demonstrate sufficient understanding of the nature of the marriage
covenant and commitment to living their lives together according to its
values. In making this decision, the teaching elder may seek the counsel
of the session, which has authority to permit or deny the use of church
property for a marriage service.

“Nothing herein shall compel a teaching elder to
perform nor compel a session to authorize the use of church property
for a marriage service that the teaching elder or the session believes
is contrary to the teaching elder’s or the session’s discernment of the
Holy Spirit and their understanding of the Word of God.”

I wish I could have heard more of the questions and debate concerning this item but my schedule did not permit hanging around for most of the livestream. In the part of the discussion I did hear there were numerous questions about global partners and their reactions. I can also say that in what I heard there were no slippery-slope arguments made. And in a nod of cooperation and forbearance the wording in the first paragraph that said “two persons” was changed to “two persons, traditionally a man and a woman.”

In the final vote the new language was approved and will be sent to the presbyteries on a vote of 429 to 175. For comparison, the 220th General Assembly defeated an amendment of similar intent but significantly different wording on a vote of 308 to 338. Note that after that vote the business was bundled into an umbrella item to answer all business in one fell swoop.

This will now be sent down to the presbyteries and will require a concurrence of a majority of them.

[10-NB] New Business
The final item of business was a resolution crafted by the Committee following their completion of the other business. Compared to the extensive text of the rest of these items it is pretty simple:

Recommend the 221st General Assembly (2014) direct the Presbyterian Mission Agency Board and
the Committee on the Office of the General Assembly to engage in the process of working together with churches in the task of reconciliation, starting with visiting
each presbytery and serving as a resource for each presbytery’s
discussion of these actions in congregations and the presbytery at-large
and present voices of reconciliation for the unity of the church.

This is a response to the recognition that for this decision there will be some who will be hurt by the outcome in the same way that some were hurt by the outcome of other decisions in this matter in previous years. The committee itself was careful in its work about being respectful and developing a sense of fellowship in the group. One of the things it did to insert some levity during its work was to have committee members share embarrassing moments during worship. (Example 1, example 2).

It should be pointed out that there was a vote to reconsider this item this morning as the first item of business and a substantive and pastoral amendment was passed without changing the basics of the item.

What’s next
Here are three items the come to mind regarding this action going forward.

First, the amendment to the Directory for Worship does need the concurrence of the presbyteries. if approved by a majority of the 171 presbyteries it will become part of the 2015-2017 Book of Order which takes affect a year from now.

Second, as we know from ordination standards an AI from the Assembly is not the last word. Even if the Book of Order change is approved there is an outside chance that a challenge to a same-sex marriage ceremony could go through the judicial process fast enough that the General Assembly Permanent Judicial Commission would have the opportunity to supersede the GA’s AI with a ruling that W-4.9001 does prohibit such ceremonies in spite of the AI.

Finally, expect the departures to continue. I am not sure that this action will suddenly and dramatically increase the exodus of churches leaving the PC(USA) as many that I have talked to have anticipated this and taken action on departure in a proactive manner. For most, this is not unexpected but a validation of what they have been saying for years. And while there are numerous factors at play between the action at the last GA and this proposed change to the Book of Order, we have to accept that the exodus has been at least partly responsible for the dramatic swing from a 308 to 338 vote to a 429 to 175 vote. (And at some point I hope to do some number crunching to explore what constraints could be put on the numbers.)

Following these actions a number of pastoral letters and statements have been released. In addition to one from the General Assembly leadership, there is one from Presbyterians for Renewal and another from the Covenant Network. I would also highlight one from Philadelphia Presbytery by their Executive Presbyter Ruth Santana-Grace.

As a bit of an aside, at the same time yesterday afternoon the 42nd General Assembly of the Presbyterian Church in America was considering their ascending overtures, including two (Overtures 2 and 5) that reiterated that denomination’s stated views against homosexual practice and same-sex marriage. Both of those overtures were dispensed with fairly quickly, although with a little discussion, as they were ruled out of order since they were both affirmations of what is already established doctrine. However, in an independent occurrence that got a bit of a chuckle from some of us in both denominations, at least one news source got the two largest American Presbyterian branches a bit confused.

So, returning to the PC(USA), it is now time to see what happens as this descends to the presbyteries – both to approve the Book of Order amendment and in general to see what the reaction is. And we pray for the initiative to encourage reconciliation as this effort goes forward. Stay tuned…

PC(USA) 2013 Membership Summary — A Look At The Categories

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I have to admit to being caught a bit off guard when the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) released their membership numbers a couple of weeks ago. The summary numbers are typically released right around the time of the start of General Assembly in years that it meets. As for whether the early release was because they were ready or they wanted to get bad news out well before the GA I will leave to others to speculate.

Once again, I took a look at the numbers and wondered “what can I possibly say about them that is not being said by others and is worth my time?” Well, in thinking about it a bit I decided to drill down and look specifically at the categories of membership gain and loss and see if there was interesting information if we picked them apart a bit.

For the data set I use the Summary Statistics released by the Office of the Stated Clerk. While for many things the Comparative Statistics from Research Services are more detailed, for the gains and losses categories the Summary works better. Rummaging around on the web site I got summaries from 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2013 taking the data back to 2005.

I decided not to deal in absolute numbers but to look at gains and losses as percentages of the total membership relative to the previous year’s total membership. This will help filter out the trend and allow a better year-to-year comparison.

First let’s look at where the gains have come from for the last nine years. Gains are reported in four categories – Profession of Faith, Reaffirmation, and Restoration for those 17 and younger, the same for those 18 and over, Certificate (i.e. documented transfers) and Other.

 Year  Profess <17 Profess >18 Certificate Other Total
2005  1.04%  2.10%  1.54% 0.62% 5.29%
 2006  1.05%  2.07% 1.46% 0.53% 5.10%
 2007  0.97%  2.00%  1.33% 0.51% 4.81%
 2008  0.95%  1.98%  1.30% 0.46% 4.68%
 2009  0.96% 1.97% 1.17%  0.48% 4.57%
 2010  0.91% 1.93%  1.04% 0.45% 4.33%
 2011  0.90%  1.81% 1.00% 0.59%  4.30%
 2012  0.84%  1.61% 0.99% 0.57%  4.00%
 2013  0.81%  1.49% 0.97% 0.68% 3.95%



Here is the data in graphical terms. This is a stacked graph so for any given component its value is the distance between that symbol and the one below it. The plotted value of the top symbol (for Certificate gains) is the number in the Total column in the table above.


It is interesting that the Other category has held relatively constant – there was a bit of a dip but some recovery in recent years. The Profession of Faith for 17 and under has a bit of a drop, significant in its own right but smaller than the remaining two in both an absolute and proportional comparison. The real decreases are seen in the Profession of Faith for 18 and over and the Transfer by Certificate. So we have not just a problem retaining the youth as they grow up but getting them back to church as adults.

Turning to the categories of losses, here is the breakdown shown in corresponding table and graph form. This table also includes the percentage net change to the total membership number.

 Year Death Certificate Other Total Total Net Change
2005  1.53%  1.21% 4.60%  7.34% -2.05%
 2006  1.50% 1.21% 4.41%  7.12%  -2.01%
 2007  1.48%  1.34% 4.53%  7.35%  -2.54%
 2008  1.54%  1.55% 4.73%  7.82% -3.14%
 2009  1.53% 1.30%  4.68% 7.52% -2.94%
 2010  1.56%  1.44% 4.27% 7.27%  -2.94%
 2011  1.58% 1.14% 4.74% 7.46% -3.16%
 2012  1.53% 2.67% 5.07% 9.27% -5.27%
 2013  1.55% 2.71% 4.47%  8.73% -4.79%



It is interesting here that losses from Death are fairly stable and the losses by Other show some greater variability but do seem to fall into a bit of a range. To no surprise the spike is in losses by Certificate from churches being dismissed and their membership being transferred to the new denomination. And, as usual, the largest source of loss is the Other category – members walking out the door.

Bottom Line? Not only is the PC(USA) losing members – accelerated in the last couple of years by dismissals – but the gains are decreasing on a percentage basis each year as well. Without an increase in gains there is no way to offset the losses.

So how do we explain this? While a number of explanations come to mind let me discuss four possibilities. And let me emphasize that these explanations are not exclusive from one another and that this data set alone is probably not sufficient to clearly distinguish between them – more work would have to be done.

1. The departing churches were the biggest contributors to growth. For many this is a temping explanation and there is a hint that this may be a contributor. It does appear that as the dismissals have accelerated over the last two or three years that the gains in membership by profession of faith have an accelerated decrease. A quick plot, not shown here, did show a suggestive correlation, but the data are clustered to the point that interpolating between the clusters would be problematic.

This is an easy explanation to fall back on since building churches and making disciples are part of the mission statement of ECO: A Covenant Order of Evangelical Presbyterians and so you could argue that churches drawn to ECO would be more growth-focused. The problem is that the trend has persisted for longer than ECO has been in existence so this could be only a partial and recent contributor, recognizing that there was an earlier exodus to the Evangelical Presbyterian Church.

2. Fatigue or Distraction: Another thing that comes to mind is that the PC(USA) is falling behind in making disciples because it is tired or it is distracted. Maybe we are tired out or distracted by our internal discussions about various issues (fill in the blank yourself or see what bubbles to the surface at GA next week). Or maybe, with an aging population we are losing the energy and drive to reach out to bring others into the church or distracted by the work of keeping the church, both people and building, going.

3. Public Relations Problems: In a similar vain, rather than our internal discussions only distracting us, maybe it presents a public relations problem for the church. Are we presenting to those that we are tying to reach an image that is not appealing, one that does not resonate with the culture today? And this may not be just a result of the ongoing discussions in the church but could include those other issues that are brought up like worship style and music as well as building style or conditions.

4. Counting the Wrong Thing: Maybe, just maybe, we are counting the wrong thing. We are frequently told that younger generations are not joiners. We have an ecclesiastical theology of the Body of Christ and a covenant body that sees joining as a statement about being called by God belonging to Christ. That may work in our theology but does not necessarily work with current culture. I would not advocate giving up that ecclesiology, but for statistical purposes recognize that our worshiping communities may not all reflect that view. There is the drive to form 1001 New Worshiping Communities and at the present time their structure and activity is not reflected in the annual statistics as they are currently collected and reported. So can we hold onto our covenant theology but for statistical purposes recognize some who are part of us but see the joining through the eyes of modern culture and our outreach?

Just a few thoughts I have, you probably have a few of your own.

The take-away for me from this exercise is that our losses are just one part of the equation and that our decreasing gains are a significant issue that also must be addressed if the PC(USA) is to consider itself a vital denomination.

Top Ten (Plus) Presbyterian News Topics of 2013

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As we spend this day looking back I thought I would once again post my personal list of the top ten news topics related to Presbyterians around the world from 2013. In this list I deliberately use the term “topics” because, as you will see, there were a number of parallels in the different branches when it came to certain items.

And so here, in no particular order, are my picks for the top ten news topics of 2013…

Elections, Elections, Elections and a Referendum

This fall it seemed that various Presbyterian branches were regularly linked with elections happening in their state or country. The list includes the Presbyterian Synod in Mizoram state in India asking for – and getting – a change in polling dates, CCAP synods defining the terms for political involvement of clergy running for office and commentary from the Presbyterian Church of Ghana on election decisions.

Falling into this category is the work of the Church of Scotland running forums and debates ahead of next year’s Scottish independence referendum.

Disasters

Somehow the natural disasters, and the global Presbyterian response, for this year stick out more than in previous lists and it includes damage done in a tornado outbreak in the central U.S. in May and typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines in November.

World Hotspots

The variety that could be included here is pretty large but let me mention Presbyterians speaking out to two of them – the response against attacks on Syria (e.g. PC(USA) ) and those speaking out about the violence in South Sudan (e.g. Presbyterian Church in Ireland).

In a particularly moving story, a Church of Scotland pastor lost many members of his family in an attack on a church in Pakistan and spoke of forgiving the attackers.

New Presbyterian Leaders at Seminaries

Four Presbyterian teaching elders were named, approved and/or installed at seminaries in the Presbyverse: Rev. Dr. Stafford Carson at Union Theological College, Belfast; Rev. Dr. M. Craig Barnes at Princeton Theological Seminary; Rev. Dr. Mark Labberton at Fuller Theological Seminary; Rev. Dr. J. Ligon Duncan at Reformed Theological Seminary.

Church of Scotland General Assembly Middle Way on Same-sex Issues

The Church of Scotland General Assembly dealt with ordination and marriage issues and rather than adopting one of the two options presented by their Special Commission chose a middle option that affirmed past teaching while opening the door to congregations being able to dissent. This led to their speaking against the proposed legislation in the Scottish Parliament that would permit same-sex marriage and asking for robust religious protections. In addition, the compromise solution was not completely satisfactory to the whole church and a few pastors and congregations have left.

Congregational Loss in the PC(USA) and Gracious Dismissal

In the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) 2012 Membership Statistics for the first time ever the number of churches transferred out of the denomination (110 churches) was larger than the number of churches dissolved (86 churches).

Associated with this was the emphasis on presbyteries having Gracious Dismissal Policies and fairly generous allowances to be dismissed with property, although there was at least one PJC case and some civil litigation, e.g. Caldwell and Highland Park.

Re-purposing Church Buildings

Along with the dissolution of churches comes the question of what to do with the property? Although to be fair this also may be a question if the church outgrows their existing property. Answers this year include a residence in Scotland, a restaurant in Belfast, and maybe a town hall in Maryland. In addition, there were several, at least, demolished and controversy down under with a presbytery of the Uniting Church proposing to close churches and sell off the buildings to satisfy debts.

With that I have hit all the cross-branch and big-topic themes that I ranked highest and have to decide on the last three from a field of several worthy and interesting candidates. Well, this is my blog and I can adjust the rules so here are five more…

The BBC Northern Ireland produced a documentary on Irish Presbyterians called “An Independent People”

Also from Northern Ireland, there was an agreement that the leaders of the failed Presbyterian Mutual Society would be ineligible to head up other companies and word of at least one bank that declined the offer to take over the failing institution.

The work of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission regarding the dark history of native residential schools continues in Canada and this year the Commission was addressed by the Moderator of the Presbyterian Church in Canada and the church issued a formal apology to Kenora residential school survivors.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services last year issued guidelines on what was required to be included in employee health care plans and several Presbyterian-affiliated organizations objected to the contraception mandate. This year at least two, Geneva College and Westminster Theological Seminary, won court cases exempting them from the HHS mandate. Review by the U.S. Supreme Court is expected so this may come back again next year.

And the Presbyterian Publishing Corporation issued a new hymnal, “Glory to God”, but not without a little controversy about one hymn that was originally to be included but deleted when a slight word change was not approved by the authors.

And there you have my suggestions for the top ten twelve Presbyterian news topics of 2013. Your mileage may vary.

So as we look ahead to 2014 – and many of my friends around the world are already there or now busy celebrating Hogmanay – I wish all of you a very Happy New Years and best wishes for the coming year.

Church Dismissals In The Synod Of Southern California And Hawai’i — Part 2: Some Numbers

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In the first part of this discussion I gave a bit of my experience with responding to a remedial complaint that was filed after the Presbytery of San Gabriel dismissed two churches to ECO: A Covenant Order of Evangelical Presbyterians.

With the mediated settlement of that complaint and dismissal of the case by the Synod Permanent Judicial Commission it opened the door for San Gabriel and other presbyteries in the synod to resume the process of working with churches that had requested dismissal. So what does the landscape look like now?

A Quantitative Analysis of Churches in the Dismissal Process
I scanned the web sites of all eight presbyteries in the synod and found three presbyteries that make their meeting minutes available on their website and in the minutes they listed churches that have requested beginning the dismissal process. Each presbytery has their own process so the lists are slightly different based upon the process. I may add to this analysis as I am able to get further information for other presbyteries. I do know that I am not missing much from past years because based on the Presbytery Summary Statistics reports through 2012 most presbyteries in the synod have not dismissed any churches and only a couple have dismissed at most one church.

Listed below are the churches that I found from the presbytery records and after them their status and reported membership for 2012 from the PC(USA) statistics.

For the Presbytery of San Gabriel there are two churches now dismissed and the presbytery has formed Pastoral Engagement Teams for three additional churches that have requested dismissal:

Glenkirk Presbyterian Church, Glendora – dismissed (1127 members)
First Presbyterian Church of Covina – dismissed (344 members)
First Presbyterian Church of Monrovia – engagement team (222 members)
San Gabriel Presbyterian Church of San Gabriel – engagement team (165 members)
Korean Good Shepherd Presbyterian Church of Rowland Heights (865 members)

For the Presbytery of Santa Barbara in reading Stated Clerk’s reports I found the following churches that have written to request dismissal. There is one more church, Emmanuel Presbyterian of Thousand Oaks, that first requested dismissal and then asked to have the request removed temporarily. These churches are listed as reported in the document and while the PC(USA) database name may be slightly different in general matching the church and the statistical report is not a problem. Here are the listed churches and sizes:

Malibu Presbyterian Church (303 members)
Orcutt Presbyterian Church (286 members)
Solvang (314 members)
Port Hueneme (192 members)
Templeton (178 members)
Morro Bay Presbyterian Church (159 members)
Community Presbyterian Church of Cambria (192 members)
Community Presbyterian Church, Ventura (387 members)
Trinity Presbyterian Church, Camarillo (269 members)
Cottonwood Community Fellowship, Los Alamos (20 members)
Orchard Community Church, Ventura (264 members)

Finally, the most recent Presbytery Council report from the Presbytery Los Ranchos has a complete list as of that date of the churches that have notified the presbytery that they have either entered discernment or are requesting dismissal:

Christ, Huntington Beach (enter discernment) (505 members)
First, Westminster (requests dismissal) (250 members)
St Paul’s, Anaheim (seek dismissal) (52 members)
Christ, Lakewood (seek dismissal) (152 members)
Community, Long Beach (included with Lakewood) (84 members)
Los Alamitos, Good Shepherd (seek dismissal) (617 members)
St. Andrew’s, Newport Beach (enter discernment) (3064 members)
Journey Evangelical, Westminster (seek dismissal) (243 members)
Trinity United, Santa Ana (enter discernment) (1556 members)
Wintersburg, Santa Ana (seek dismissal) (467 members)
Cornerstone (worshiping fellowship) (seek dismissal) (fellowship – not included)

So there is the data set. Let me add at this point that for both the churches requesting dismissal as well as the statistics for the presbyteries as a whole New Church Developments (NCD) and Fellowships have been excluded because statistics are not reported in the same way as chartered churches. It should also be remembered that this is a forward looking analysis as only two of the churches in the lists have actually been dismissed and three in Los Ranchos have only entered discernment. It also presumes that all of the members of a church are transferred with the dismissed congregation, a situation which is common but on occasion a continuing or remnant group may be identified.

For the analysis that follows you can see my spreadsheet showing all the churches in each of these presbyteries and the statistics I discuss.

For the Presbytery of San Gabriel if all five churches are ultimately dismissed the presbytery could lose 2710 of its 9429 members or 28.7% of its membership. These five churches have an average membership of 542.0 compared to the presbytery average of 214.9. Their median size is 344 while it is 89.5 for the whole presbytery.

For the Presbytery of Santa Barbara the departure of these eleven churches would reduce the presbytery size by 2564 or just a bit more than one-third (34.1%) from the current total membership of 7510. The mean size of the churches requesting dismissal is actually a bit less than for the presbytery now, 233.1 versus 242.2, and the median is slightly higher, 264 versus 220.

For the Presbytery of Los Ranchos the potential membership shifts are significantly larger. Membership could drop by 37.4% with a loss of 6990 members from the current total of 18,699. The churches that may depart have an average size of 699 members which is almost twice the average size of churches currently, 381.6. Similarly, the median would be 358.5 versus the current median of 216.

Looking at the largest churches, in San Gabriel the Glenkirk church is one of three similar sized large churches in the presbytery. In Santa Barbara the largest church on the dismissal list is only the fifth-largest in the presbytery. However, those familiar with PC(USA) churches will quickly recognize the presence of St. Andrew’s of Newport Beach on the Los Ranchos list. At 3064 members it is one of the largest churches in the PC(USA) missing the 15th place on the 2012 annual list of large churches by 20 members. It is almost twice as large the second largest church on the possible dismissal list and a bit more than twice the size of the largest church on the remaining list. It accounts for 16.6% of the possible membership loss and without it in the list the average size of possible departing churches drops to 436.2 and the median to 250. Each of these is now much closer to the current average (381.6) and median (216) of the presbytery.

For all these statistics I have been comparing the descriptive statistics with the set of churches currently in each presbytery. For comparison purposes the denomination wide numbers have a mean church size of 180 and a median size of 89. Los Ranchos and Santa Barbara are both above those sizes for the current presbytery, the group of possible departing churches and the remaining presbytery after departures.  San Gabriel before dismissals has a slightly larger mean and is right even with the median. After these possible departures the first two would remain above but San Gabriel’s mean and median would drop below the national numbers for 2012. However, with both the departures from the PC(USA) and the ongoing general declining trend it would seem likely that San Gabriel’s future size would still mirror the denomination as a whole.

So what does all this mean and should we care?

To begin with, the pattern seen in these three presbyteries is similar in magnitude and statistics to that seen previously in the presbyteries of Mississippi, Tropical Florida and Central Florida, but not in the Presbytery of Alaska. It looks like we can statistically verify the conventional wisdom that in the great majority of cases the PC(USA) is preferentially losing larger churches to dismissals to more conservative or evangelical reformed bodies.

The clearest implication, at least in my mind, is that the preferential departure of larger churches will have a non-proportional impact on governing body finances. Governing body financial needs don’t scale linearly with membership or number of churches but their income generally does. (And yes, for the moment let us presume that these congregations were at least paying something in per capita and mission giving although I am aware that there was a trend among some of these churches not to.) There are a lot of fixed costs in staff and administration that will be there whether there are 50 churches or 75 churches. To lose generally about one-third of revenue, particularly from the larger sources, will have a major impact on budgets because there will not be proportionally lower expenses to the governing body.

From a polity and theological point of view, the implication is that initiatives by those with a progressive viewpoint in the PC(USA) to change the Book of Order will have a greater chance of passing GA and the presbyteries. Changes in voting patterns can be attributed to a number of factors including individuals having a new perspective, the replacement of older elders, teaching and ruling, with younger ones, the attrition due to members leaving individually as well as departures of churches as a unit. At some point an analysis of all this would be worthwhile.

It is tempting to conclude from this analysis that conservative churches in the PC(USA), as represented by those seeking departure, are in general larger than moderate or progressive churches. This does not immediately follow since it can be argued that larger churches would leave preferentially because they are in a position to better support themselves in a fledgling body like ECO while smaller churches are more dependent on financial, administrative and spiritual support that governing bodies of an established church, like the PC(USA) are able to offer.

Returning to the 2012 list of the 15 largest churches in the PC(USA) there is a strong suggestion that larger churches are more likely to be conservative. Of the 15 churches on the list six of them (Peachtree, Christ, Highland Park, Memorial Drive, Bel Air and First Bellevue) also appear on the membership list of the Fellowship of Presbyterians. While not half, the question is raised whether that is proportionally more than moderate and progressive churches that make up the remaining nine spots. This is reinforced by checking the list of member churches of the Covenant Network and there are only two (Fourth, Village) that appear on the list. I have another analysis in progress where preliminary results show that conservative churches, departing or staying, are more likely to be larger than their progressive counterparts. Hope to get that finished and posted later this week.

So the data on dismissals in the PC(USA) gro
ws. It will be interesting to see how each of these requested dismissals progresses and I have other information that there could be some interesting developments in a couple of cases. We will see what happens.

A Look At The PC(USA) Church Dismissals In Alaska

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A little under a year ago I did an analysis of some church dismissals from Tropical Florida and Mississippi Presbyteries of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.). In each presbytery multiple churches were dismissed permitting a statistical comparison of the sizes of those churches with the churches across the presbytery and the analysis found that the churches requesting dismissal were typically larger than the churches in the presbytery as a whole.

Now a similar situation has presented itself in the Presbytery of Alaska that allows me to once again go into statistical analysis mode.
 
The Presbytery web site contains this short news statement:

The Presbytery of Alaska met in Haines on April 5-7, 2013, and having concluded the processes set out in
“A GRACIOUS, PASTORAL RESONSE [sic] TO CHURCHES OF THE PRESBYTERY OF ALASKA REQUESTING DISAFFILIATION”
dismissed to the Covenant Order of Evangelical Presbyterian [sic] these churches: Kake, Angoon, Hoonah, Chapel by the Lake, Haines, and Skagway.

The Presbytery web site has been updated to list just the remaining nine churches.

At the one meeting this presbytery lost 2/5 of its 15 congregations. The question is whether this presbytery follows the previous pattern of church size distributions.

Here are the 15 churches’ membership numbers from their 2011 statistical reports.

Church  Location 2011 Membership
Remaining churches    
 First PC  Petersburg  39
 First PC  Sitka  73
 First PC  Wrangell  44
 First of Craig and Klawock  Craig  46
 Hydaburg PC  Hydaburg  28
 Ketchikan PC  Ketchikan  42
 Metlakatla PC  Metlakatla  40
 Northern Lights UPC  Juneau  99
 Yakutat PC  Yakutat  10
     
 Dismissed churches    
 Chapel by the Lake  Juneau  491
 First PC  Skagway  30
 Frances Johnson Memorial PC  Angoon  21
 Haines PC  Haines  63
 Hoonah PC  Hoonah  13
 Kake Memorial PC  Kake  14

Before the dismissals the Presbytery’s 15 congregations had 1053 members combined. Of that 421 members (40.0%) remain in the nine churches and 632 (60.0%) left in the six churches that were dismissed. The median size of the churches in the Presbytery before dismissal was 40 and after it is 42. The median size of the dismissed churches is 25.5.

So, the answer is that taken as a group the churches that requested dismissal to the Covenant Order of Evangelical Presbyterians are generally smaller than the churches remaining in the Presbytery. In other words the pattern we saw in Mississippi and Tropical Florida is not seen here in Alaska, but rather we find the reverse.

There is one pattern here that we have seen elsewhere – the departure of the largest church. While this did not happen in Tropical Florida – there the largest church requesting dismissal was the second largest church in the Presbytery – we did see in Mississippi that the two largest churches departed. We are seeing in other presbyteries the largest church requesting dismissal but my more comprehensive analysis of that is still in the works. In Alaska, the largest church in the Presbytery was dismissed and it has a membership almost five times larger than the second largest church. In fact the membership of Chapel by the Lake represented 46.6% of the Presbytery’s church membership before dismissals and 77.7% of the membership that was dismissed. (And because this one data point has such a large value is the reason I have so far not mentioned the statical mean of the data.)

Looking a bit further at the data we see that the second and third smallest churches were also dismissed, contributing to the median size of the dismissed churches being below those that remain.

Just out of curiosity, if we drop the large outlier from the data set we find that there are 562 members in all the other churches with 40.1 members as the mean size of a church and 39.5 the median. For the five smaller churches that were dismissed there are 141 members (25.1%) and the remaining churches have 421 members (74.9%). These five departing churches have a mean size of 28.2 and a median of 21. The remaining churches have an average size of 46.8 and a median of 42.

All this to say that in this case, while the largest church in the Presbytery of Alaska was among those being dismissed, overall the churches that requested dismissal to ECO were generally smaller churches in the Presbytery.

I have not done the necessary research on these churches to have formulated a good theory as to why this reverse pattern is present in this presbytery. Part of the reason that this area may have significantly different dynamics is because of the isolation of each of these communities and therefore church choices are very limited. This is in contrast to areas with larger populations and better transportation networks where perspective members can church shop for a congregation that meets their long list of interests and preferences. Only in Juneau were there two Presbyterian churches in the same city. For the others, even if two churches were on the same island, travel between was by sea or air — no driving between the communities. There is generally no choosing between two Presbyterian churches with different styles or theological perspective.

For the polity geeks I will mention that with the Presbytery of Alaska dropping to nine congregations, they are now below the minimum of ten required for a presbytery. The Layman reports that while the Presbytery continues to be administered as it has been the Synod of Alaska-Northwest has assumed jurisdiction.

So, an interesting data set but one that may not be representative of other parts of the country. As other data sets get larger we will see what they look like.

Two News Stories About Churches And Their Worship Space

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Last week two different news stories caught my attention and they both  were related to changes in the church and how they were working out their need and vision for worship space.

The first story is about the Gilcomston South Church, now referred to as just the Gilcomston Church, in Aberdeen, Scotland. This congregation had been making the news recently because of its discernment about whether to withdraw from the Church of Scotland. Well, it did so on February 15 and unlike the earlier withdraw of St. George’s Tron in Glasgow, it appears Gilcomston was prepared to walk away from the property. The few members of the continuing congregation are now meeting with the South Holburn Church until new leadership is in place and the future prospects are evaluated.

When Gilcomston left their building they began by meeting in a local hotel ballroom but complaints from guests resulted in the hotel management asking them to leave. (Their Facebook page has some pictures of the first Lord’s Day away from their building.)

Being without a home the Aberdeen Presbytery made them a very gracious offer (from an article in the Scotsman):

In a remarkable gesture, the members of the Aberdeen Presbytery of the
Church of Scotland have agreed to offer members of the former
congregation at the city’s Gilcomston South Church the temporary use of
the city centre building while they find a permanent base for their
breakaway church.

And a BBC article contains this quote from the convener of the Presbytery’s special committee considering the property:

The Rev George Cowie, committee convener, said: “‘It is deeply sad
when people choose to leave the Church of Scotland. We believe that the
Church of Scotland is a broad church and that it can accommodate people
who hold differing views.

“In this case, however, the situation has not involved conflict, scandal or litigation.

“All parties have shown respect for one another and it has
been a good Christian witness for us to engage with one another in this
manner.”

While I could say a lot about this situation, and the benefits to both parties, I am going to leave that last sentence to speak for itself about the witness. It will be interesting to see in what sort of worship space they finally move into. And that is part of the next story as well…

The second story is about three Georgia churches uniting – brought to us by the Marietta Daily Journal.

Yesterday was the last Lord’s Day with the three separate worship services and this coming week they will join together and charter as the new Light of Hope Presbyterian Church on Resurrection Sunday. Having a look at the PC(USA) statistics for these churches you can see the value of joining forces. (And in the discussion below, since the churches are being dissolved, there is no certainty how long the links will still be good.)

Southminster Presbyterian of Marietta shows in the PC(USA) statistics a membership of 86 members in 2011 and average worship attendance of 43, both declining from about twice those numbers seven years ago.

Woodlawn Presbyterian of Mableton has similar numbers with a membership of  69 and average worship attendance of 38. Their decline is not as sharp with only about a 25% drop over the last ten years, a number similar to the PC(USA) as a whole.

Calvary Presbyterian (official website already gone) of Marietta is the smallest of the three with a membership of 45 and average worship of 37. Their membership decline has two phases, a major drop in 2003 and then a steady loss of about half their members since then.  Since the worship attendance does not show the large 2003 drop that is probably just a cleaning of the membership rolls.

Let me highlight a few details from the news report:  First, all three churches are said to have been founded in the 1960’s so these are not historic churches but more likely represent the mainline expansion into suburbia as the city spread. (They are all on the southwest side of Marietta.)  Second, the pastors speak of their congregations getting older so these churches reflect the graying of the PC(USA). (The comment is made that the average age of one of the congregations is 65 which is only slightly older than the median age for the denomination of 63 determined by the latest Presbyterian Panel Snapshot.) Third, Southminster and Calvary share a pastor – managing with dwindling resources. Finally, both of the pastors of these three churches are at retirement age and with the closings will go into retirement.

But what caught my attention was the future plans for the new church. The first is the new pastor coming in to work with the new church – The Rev. Edwin Gonzalez-Gertz. He is transferring from the Presbytery of Tropical Florida and the summary of the November meeting of Cherokee Presbytery indicates that they were conducting a presbytery level search to fill a designated pastor position. The 2013 Mission Yearbook lists Rev. Gonzalez-Gertz as being on the Tropical Florida Presbytery staff as the Associate Missional Presbyter. A 2006 article in the Sun Sentinel describes him and his earlier work at Cypress Presbyterian Church in Pompano Beach. Lots of good stuff in the article but here is his quote describing that church:

This church has been transformed into a bilingual, multicultural
community that fits the projected demographics for the nation in 2050,
so it is a project that the Presbyterian General Assembly is supporting
to test the different ways of doing church.

Looking to the future the other aspect is all three properties are for sale. So what does this mean for their worship space? Here is what the current pastors say in the article:

The Southminster church building will house the new Light of Hope
congregation for no more than two years, Paulsen said. It will then move
to a new location that’s not a traditional church building.

“Traditional
church buildings aren’t built for ministries,” Paulsen said. “We need
to add some elements to the program to make it more attractive to young
families.”

The new elements will be more contemporary, but won’t stray from the “classic Presbyterian DNA,” as Paulsen put it.

Each
church has promised that the site starting out at Light of Hope will
only be temporary, and they intend to find a vacated building – possibly
an old bookstore or Home Depot site – to draw a new crowd, Spangler
said.

New ways of doing church, and you don’t know how it will work out until you try.

We wish both of these congregations well as they move forward and will try to remember to stop back in to see how they are doing. And a big thanks to Aberdeen Presbytery for your gracious Christian Witness.

And a bit more on church growth in the next day or two…

40th General Assembly of the Presbyterian Church in America

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  Coming up this week we have the two largest annual American Presbyterian General Assembly meetings. The first will be the meeting of the 40th General Assembly of the Presbyterian Church in America which will convene on Tuesday 19 June in Louisville, Kentucky. The meeting concludes on Friday. Committee meetings and pre-Assembly workshops and seminars happen on Monday and most of the day Tuesday with the Assembly convening Tuesday evening.

There is plenty of info related to this meeting. Here is some of the most useful and important material.

If you want to follow the proceedings on Twitter this should be a fairly active meeting. As already mentioned the official news feed is @PCAByFaith but at this moment it seems the hashtag has not been settled between #pcaga or #pcaga12. As for individuals at GA… where to start? Let me suggest a few and I will update as needed – so for starters @PCAPresbyter, @RaeWhitlock, @EdEubanks, @SeanMLucas and @Weslianus. (That looks like a good Friday Follow on Twitter.) UPDATE: Add to that list @FredGreco

Lots of interesting business coming to the Assembly including that extensive report on Insider Movements.  With this meeting a lot has been known to happen with records reviews so we will see what might happen when that report comes up on Wednesday afternoon.

Fourty-three overtures is a fairly typical volume, or maybe a bit more than typical, for this Assembly and many of them are the routine business of doing things decently and in order. This would include Overtures 5 and 7, 23 and 24, and 22, 39, 40, 41 and 42. Each of these are sets of concurring overtures related to changing presbytery boundaries, including the last one which would dissolve Louisiana Presbytery and merge it into the four surrounding presbyteries.

There is a lot of important business in the overtures so let me break them into a couple of classes. A number of them are polity changes to adjust sections of the Book of Church Order (BCO), the Rules of Assembly (ROA) or the rules of the Standing Judicial Commission (SJC). There are also two (37, 44) recognizing the 30th anniversary of the “Joining and Receiving” of the Reformed Church, Evangelical Synod with the PCA.

Several of the overtures deal with confessional issues and confessional standards. This includes concurring overtures 1 and 2 which seek to have not just those that are ordained, but those that are in the process and are coming up for licensure to be examined for their conformity with the Standards. Another interesting proposed change to the BCO would make the distinction between confessing and catechizing the faith more distinct in the BCO. Overture 35 asks for a rewording of 55-1 and the addition of a new 55-2 so that faith is confessed using the Apostles and Nicene Creeds and is catechized using the Westminster Standards. This is actually part of a related series of overtures from Southeast Alabama Presbytery that deal with membership, including asking for the requirement that to join the church an individual must affirm the Apostles Creed (Overtures 33 and 34).

There are a couple of overtures that explore important theological questions. Overture 30  argues that in the Last Supper Jesus distributed the bread and wine in two separate sacramental actions and since communion by intinction merges the actions it is therefore not an appropriate means to distribute communion. The overture proposes language to make this explicit in the BCO. Another major topic this year is the historic nature of Adam and Eve and two concurring overtures, 10 and 29, ask the Assembly to reaffirm a PCUS statement of 1886 declaring the special creation of Adam and Eve by God with Adam being created from only the dust. These overtures also note that the failure of the PCUS GA to reaffirm this statement in 1969 “was a sign of the apostasy of the PCUS.” In response is Overture 26 which states that current statements on this topic are sufficient and that the specificity of the declaration is outside the Westminster Standards and therefore the statement proposed in the other overtures should not be adopted. (Earlier this afternoon updates from the committee meeting indicate that the committee will recommend not affirming Overtures 10 and 29 and affirming Overture 26.)

Just a sampling of the business before the Assembly. For a fuller discussion of the overtures check out Wes White’s blog Johannes Weslianus.

So I wish all the commissioners and families a good time in Louisville and enjoying the barbeque. Our prayers are with you for your deliberations and work.

Running The Numbers — Dismissals From Tropical Florida And Mississippi Presbyteries

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Over the last couple of weeks a big deal has been made about how the recent dismissals of churches in the Southeastern US have removed about one-third of the members out of a couple of presbyteries. Some examples of this media include the articles on the Layman site (Florida, Mississippi) and an article on the Christianity Today site. Well, I decided to drill down into the data a bit.

First my data set: The latest from the PC(USA) are the 2010 comparative statistics and the congregational reporting also for 2012. I looked up the stats on each congregation in each presbytery and used Table 4 from the Comparative Statistics as a comparison. The list from the PC(USA) Find A Congregation when searched by presbytery was compared to the list each presbytery has posted of their churches (Florida, Mississippi). At the time I ran the numbers the dismissed churches still appeared on each list. Interestingly, the PC(USA) list by presbytery misses churches in each presbytery (First Pompano Beach in Tropical Florida and First Pascagoula and Vernal Presbyterian in Mississippi). In addition, the PC(USA) list includes Wiggins Presbyterian in Mississippi which no longer appears on the presbytery’s list. Finally, one church in Tropical Florida, Korean Central Presbyterian Church, has no data in the PC(USA) statistics. Working through all these differences does result in a list of churches that agrees in number with Table 4.

I checked with Jason Reagan, the Layman reporter who wrote the articles, and he confirmed that the numbers in his articles are current numbers supplied by the churches and the presbyteries. For the analysis I did the 2010 numbers provide a consistent database with a specific snapshot date for comparison both within the presbyteries as well as between them.

Presbytery of Tropical Florida
With 55 of 56 churches reporting data for the close of 2010 the membership of the churches in the Presbytery was 13,291 based on adding all the individual churches and 13,425 from Table 4. The average size of a church was 242 members with a median of 127 members. For the 47 continuing churches the total membership is 10,137 with an average of 221 members per church and a median of 113 members. The nine dismissed churches have a total membership of 3,124, an average membership of 350, and a median membership of 188. Seven of the nine have memberships above the Presbytery median. As a percentage, 16.1% of the churches in the presbytery and 23.7% of the members in the presbytery were dismissed.

For comparison, the Layman reported that the total current membership of the Presbytery was 13,525 and the total current membership of the dismissed churches is about 3,800. This total membership number that is slightly higher than the PC(USA) number may reflect slight growth in the Presbytery or information on the missing numbers for the one church. The difference for the number of members dismissed is significantly larger and using the current numbers from the Layman results in 28.1% of the members being dismissed.

Presbytery of Mississippi
For the 43 churches in the Presbytery at the close of 2010 there is a total membership of 4,425 from adding the individual congregations compared with 4,485 from Table 4. The average membership is 103 members and the median is 47 members. The five dismissed churches have a membership of 1297 (29.3% of the total membership) with an average membership of 259 members and a median of 361. Three dismissed churches have memberships higher than the median of the whole group and are the three largest churches in the Presbytery. One church is the median of the whole group and one is below. The 38 churches remaining have a total membership of 3128, an average membership of 82 and a median of 43.

According to the Layman article the current total membership of the Presbytery is about 4,300 members from which the dismissed churches will remove 1,400 members or about 32.5%.

Since collecting the data and running the numbers above another presbytery in the area, Central Florida, has dismissed two churches.  I am not going to do the same comprehensive analysis for the presbytery right now (they list 75 churches so it will take more time than I have at the moment) but Table 4 lists a total membership of 27,193 giving an average per congregation of 363 members. The table lists the median church membership at 206. For the two dismissed churches Trinity of Satellite Beach has 877 members and First Presbyterian of Orlando has 3521 members. These 4,398 members account for 16.2% of the presbytery membership.

Discussion
One reason for undertaking this analysis is because these are large enough samples to try to quantify something that some of us have noticed – that the churches leaving the PC(USA) are on average larger than most of the other churches in the denomination.  With the past pattern of one church from a presbytery here and one from another presbytery there arguments could be made that this was not typical or comparisons were weak.  Now, however, with five churches from one presbytery and nine from another being dismissed in groups there is a more coherent data set.

As I note above, the churches dismissed in this round are larger than the average church in the presbytery based on both the average size and the median. For Tropical Florida the dismissed churches are on average 45% larger (350 versus 242) and for Mississippi 150% larger (259 versus 103). Similarly, the median is 76% and 668% larger for the dismissed churches.

It is worth noting that the average size congregation in the PC(USA) nationally in the 2010 data set is 191 and so while Tropical Florida has a larger average (242) and Mississippi a lower average (103) the average of the churches dismissed from each presbytery are larger than the national average (350 and 259). Similarly, the national median is 95 and all these relationships hold for that measure as well.

What first caught my attention regarding these numbers was the claim that one-third of each presbytery had been dismissed. I have noted previously that one-third/two-thirds splits seem to be one common division in Presbyterian divisions. In this case it is a bit lower than one-third, but still in the neighborhood and so it may hold in this case.

The problems with identifying this at this present time are however numerous. One issue is that additional churches may request dismissal so it is only a snapshot and not a completed process. Another is that while the churches have been dismissed there are likely some members who will be in a continuing church or who will remain in the PC(USA) joining neighboring churches. Another complication is that the dismissed churches are not all leaving together but some are going to ECO and some to the EPC. Finally, is it a reasonable thing to just look at individual presbyteries in isolation and ignore the big picture of the whole denomination.

What we can document from this is the fact that on average the churches that are requesting, and being granted, dismissal are larger churches. I can come up with numerous reasons for this but further work would be necessary to document whether there is one dominant reason. One possible explanation is that conservative churches tend to be more vibrant and viable and therefore be in a better position to attract and retain members. Another possible explanation is that larger churches simply
by virtue of their size are in a better position to strike out on their own, or join a fledgling group like the ECO, while smaller churches are dependent on some of the resources of the larger denominational structure, including monies paid into the pension plan. Those are just two of the several possible explanations.

It is worth noting that this trend does present challenges for the PC(USA). As we see in Tropical Florida it amplifies the membership losses when 16.1% of the churches leaving means that nearly one quarter of the members are dismissed with them. And in each presbytery you will note that the average size of church and the median size dropped after the dismissals.

While churches have been leaving for the EPC for a number of years now the dismissals to ECO have only just begun. It may be too early to reliably consider these numbers so we will see if this trend continues or if it changes with time. We shall see.

Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) Releases The Latest Membership Statistics

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Well, yesterday was July 1 – so a happy belated Canada Day to our friends north of the border.

It is also about the time of year that the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) releases their annual membership statistics and right on schedule the Stated Clerk released them yesterday.  While the full comparative statistics will take a little bit longer, now we have the Summary Statistics, Miscellaneous Information, and the Press Release. In addition, you can find commentary on the numbers from The Layman, and I would expect the Presbyterian Outlook to have an article shortly and probably a few more entities will weigh in as well. 

Running through the numbers I don’t see much change in direction of any of the categories.  Here are a few of the numbers and their change from 2009 to 2010.

 Category  2010
Value 		 % change
from 2009
 Membership  2,016,091  -2.94%
 Churches  10,560  -0.91%
 Teaching Elders  21,161  -0.35%
 Candidates  1,189  +0.59%
 Ruling Elders  86,777  -3.62%
 Gain by
Profession of faith
17 and under 		 18,895  -7.83%
 Gain by
Profession of faith
18 and over		  40,106  -4.71%
 Gain by
Certificate 		 21,615  -13.34%

Yes, there are plenty more statistics but these are the ones related to membership that have a consistent trend, usually down, over the last three years. And yes, the PC(USA) is still above 2 million members so those that had numbers in the pool below 2 mil are out of luck, but at a loss of 61 thousand a year, we will see that next year.

The losses actually had some interesting variation this year.  For example, losses by certificate (transfer) have bounced around a bit but in this year the numbers bounced up 2,058 to 29,835.  That is still less than the 2008 losses by certificate of 34,340. Interestingly, the other losses, that is the people who left without transfer, hit a low for the last eleven years of 88,731, down from 100,253 last year.

So what does this mean in terms of breaking out the causes of decline.  The losses from transfer of members to the Church Triumphant (those that died) was 32,471 or -1.56%.  The internal replenishment rate in the form of youth joining the church was 18.895 or +0.91%. So our internal loss was 13,576 or  -0.65%.  By transfer the church gained 21,615 and lost 29,835 for a net of -8220 or -0.40%.  Adult profession of faith and other brought in 49,480 members while other losses were 88,731 for a net of -39251 or -1.89%.

Therefore, we can say that of the 2.94% decline, 0.65% is the deficit in internal replacement, 0.40% is the imbalance in transfers, and almost two-thirds is in the imbalance of those coming and leaving without formal transfer.

Regarding the ordained officers of the church there is a bit less clarity.  This first release always gives the total number of teaching elders (ministers) but we will have to wait a bit longer for the release of the bigger report to know how many are active ministers and how many are honorably retired. Last year, of 21,235 ministers 13,400 were listed as active.

The number of ruling elders listed I usually figure is the number currently serving on session.  With 10,560 churches and 86,777 elders that comes to an average of 8.22 per church.  (In case you are interested that is down from 9.26/church in 2001.)  The interesting thing of course is that while this is labeled “elders” we know it is not all the elders because the last Presbyterian Panel report says 21% of the members of the church have been ordained as ruling elders — so there should be closer to 423,379.  (An interesting juxtaposition with a workshop at Big Tent yesterday where the message was that “Being an elder is a ‘perpetual calling.'”)

Finally, I am never sure what to do with the candidates line because the full statistics always have a different number, a difference I have attributed to taking the “snapshot” at different times during the year.  For example, the new summary lists 1182 candidates in 2009 while the full comparative statistics list 1154. Another reason for the difference could be the data coming from different sources.

Anyway, for what follows I will just use the numbers as they appear in this preliminary release and the equivalent ones from earlier years.

I wanted to look at how all these categories are changing with time and relative to one another.  So taking the data back to 2001 I normalized each category to that year.  That is to say I took all the data in a category and divided it by the 2001 value so they all start at a value of 1 for that year and proportional changes can be seen more clearly.  Here is what I get:


Now we can see that the fastest declining category is the total membership of the church closely followed by the number of ruling elders.  One interpretation is that ruling elders are departing the church at almost the same rate at other members, but that would not be correct.  Remember that this number is actually a measure of those serving on sessions so it means that sessions are decreasing in size proportionate with the decrease in membership, not the decrease in the number of congregations.  I’m open to suggestions about why this might be – smaller sessions for smaller churches? smaller sessions to be more efficient? smaller sessions because the pool of ruling elders is decreasing?  An interesting topic for future thought.

For the other numbers, the number of churches has decreased slightly (5% over 10 years), the number of teaching elders has held very steady over that time, and the number of candidates has shown significant growth.  Clearly we have a window of opportunity with this abundance of candidates to revitalize congregations and develop those 1001 new worshiping communities.

At this point I think I’ll wrap this up leaving the finances completely untouched.  Echoing the sentiments of the Stated Clerk, I have found Presbyterians to be a very generous bunch, especially when the mission is compelling.  So the question is, with the denomination positioned in this present situation what compelling mission is out there for the financial and human resources that are at our disposal. There is apparently a lot of talent in the pipeline — I hope they are ready for some creative and out-of-the box ministry.

The General Synod Of The Presbyterian Church In Trinidad And Tobago

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The 51st General Synod meeting of the Presbyterian Church In Trinidad and Tobago was held this week. This Presbyterian branch has three presbyteries broken down further into 23 Pastoral Regions with four or five churches in each region.  The church has 72 primary schools, five secondary schools and a theological college.

At the beginning of the week the Trinidad Express reported that the election of the Moderator of this General Synod was much less of a formality and more of a contended election.  As they put it:

Sources told the Express “members are in favour of a young, vibrant
minister to heal the decay in the falling membership of the church,
while the diehards are supporting a former moderator who had served two
terms in that office”.

And later they say

The Express learned Rev Brenda Bullock, current minister serving at
Couva, has the support of the younger members of the synod, as well as
those who want to see changes in the operations of the church. “We have
been losing members steadily, and now is the time for us to introduce
changes that would attract young people into the fold,” said a member of
the synod, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

So it looks like the “young, vibrant minister” prevailed and the Rev. Brenda Bullock was elected for a two year term as Moderator with 80 of the 102 votes, according to The Guardian.  In addition to this election being a more contested race, the election of the Rev. Bullock is notable since she is the first woman to serve as General Synod Moderator.  We wish her well and pray for her work.