A little under a year ago I did an analysis of some church dismissals from Tropical Florida and Mississippi Presbyteries of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.). In each presbytery multiple churches were dismissed permitting a statistical comparison of the sizes of those churches with the churches across the presbytery and the analysis found that the churches requesting dismissal were typically larger than the churches in the presbytery as a whole.

Now a similar situation has presented itself in the Presbytery of Alaska that allows me to once again go into statistical analysis mode.
 
The Presbytery web site contains this short news statement:

The Presbytery of Alaska met in Haines on April 5-7, 2013, and having concluded the processes set out in
“A GRACIOUS, PASTORAL RESONSE [sic] TO CHURCHES OF THE PRESBYTERY OF ALASKA REQUESTING DISAFFILIATION”
dismissed to the Covenant Order of Evangelical Presbyterian [sic] these churches: Kake, Angoon, Hoonah, Chapel by the Lake, Haines, and Skagway.

The Presbytery web site has been updated to list just the remaining nine churches.

At the one meeting this presbytery lost 2/5 of its 15 congregations. The question is whether this presbytery follows the previous pattern of church size distributions.

Here are the 15 churches’ membership numbers from their 2011 statistical reports.

Before the dismissals the Presbytery’s 15 congregations had 1053 members combined. Of that 421 members (40.0%) remain in the nine churches and 632 (60.0%) left in the six churches that were dismissed. The median size of the churches in the Presbytery before dismissal was 40 and after it is 42. The median size of the dismissed churches is 25.5.

So, the answer is that taken as a group the churches that requested dismissal to the Covenant Order of Evangelical Presbyterians are generally smaller than the churches remaining in the Presbytery. In other words the pattern we saw in Mississippi and Tropical Florida is not seen here in Alaska, but rather we find the reverse.

There is one pattern here that we have seen elsewhere – the departure of the largest church. While this did not happen in Tropical Florida – there the largest church requesting dismissal was the second largest church in the Presbytery – we did see in Mississippi that the two largest churches departed. We are seeing in other presbyteries the largest church requesting dismissal but my more comprehensive analysis of that is still in the works. In Alaska, the largest church in the Presbytery was dismissed and it has a membership almost five times larger than the second largest church. In fact the membership of Chapel by the Lake represented 46.6% of the Presbytery’s church membership before dismissals and 77.7% of the membership that was dismissed. (And because this one data point has such a large value is the reason I have so far not mentioned the statical mean of the data.)

Looking a bit further at the data we see that the second and third smallest churches were also dismissed, contributing to the median size of the dismissed churches being below those that remain.

Just out of curiosity, if we drop the large outlier from the data set we find that there are 562 members in all the other churches with 40.1 members as the mean size of a church and 39.5 the median. For the five smaller churches that were dismissed there are 141 members (25.1%) and the remaining churches have 421 members (74.9%). These five departing churches have a mean size of 28.2 and a median of 21. The remaining churches have an average size of 46.8 and a median of 42.

All this to say that in this case, while the largest church in the Presbytery of Alaska was among those being dismissed, overall the churches that requested dismissal to ECO were generally smaller churches in the Presbytery.

I have not done the necessary research on these churches to have formulated a good theory as to why this reverse pattern is present in this presbytery. Part of the reason that this area may have significantly different dynamics is because of the isolation of each of these communities and therefore church choices are very limited. This is in contrast to areas with larger populations and better transportation networks where perspective members can church shop for a congregation that meets their long list of interests and preferences. Only in Juneau were there two Presbyterian churches in the same city. For the others, even if two churches were on the same island, travel between was by sea or air — no driving between the communities. There is generally no choosing between two Presbyterian churches with different styles or theological perspective.

For the polity geeks I will mention that with the Presbytery of Alaska dropping to nine congregations, they are now below the minimum of ten required for a presbytery. The Layman reports that while the Presbytery continues to be administered as it has been the Synod of Alaska-Northwest has assumed jurisdiction.

So, an interesting data set but one that may not be representative of other parts of the country. As other data sets get larger we will see what they look like.