Over the last couple of weeks a big deal has been made about how the recent dismissals of churches in the Southeastern US have removed about one-third of the members out of a couple of presbyteries. Some examples of this media include the articles on the Layman site (Florida, Mississippi) and an article on the Christianity Today site. Well, I decided to drill down into the data a bit.

First my data set: The latest from the PC(USA) are the 2010 comparative statistics and the congregational reporting also for 2012. I looked up the stats on each congregation in each presbytery and used Table 4 from the Comparative Statistics as a comparison. The list from the PC(USA) Find A Congregation when searched by presbytery was compared to the list each presbytery has posted of their churches (Florida, Mississippi). At the time I ran the numbers the dismissed churches still appeared on each list. Interestingly, the PC(USA) list by presbytery misses churches in each presbytery (First Pompano Beach in Tropical Florida and First Pascagoula and Vernal Presbyterian in Mississippi). In addition, the PC(USA) list includes Wiggins Presbyterian in Mississippi which no longer appears on the presbytery’s list. Finally, one church in Tropical Florida, Korean Central Presbyterian Church, has no data in the PC(USA) statistics. Working through all these differences does result in a list of churches that agrees in number with Table 4.

I checked with Jason Reagan, the Layman reporter who wrote the articles, and he confirmed that the numbers in his articles are current numbers supplied by the churches and the presbyteries. For the analysis I did the 2010 numbers provide a consistent database with a specific snapshot date for comparison both within the presbyteries as well as between them.

Presbytery of Tropical Florida
With 55 of 56 churches reporting data for the close of 2010 the membership of the churches in the Presbytery was 13,291 based on adding all the individual churches and 13,425 from Table 4. The average size of a church was 242 members with a median of 127 members. For the 47 continuing churches the total membership is 10,137 with an average of 221 members per church and a median of 113 members. The nine dismissed churches have a total membership of 3,124, an average membership of 350, and a median membership of 188. Seven of the nine have memberships above the Presbytery median. As a percentage, 16.1% of the churches in the presbytery and 23.7% of the members in the presbytery were dismissed.

For comparison, the Layman reported that the total current membership of the Presbytery was 13,525 and the total current membership of the dismissed churches is about 3,800. This total membership number that is slightly higher than the PC(USA) number may reflect slight growth in the Presbytery or information on the missing numbers for the one church. The difference for the number of members dismissed is significantly larger and using the current numbers from the Layman results in 28.1% of the members being dismissed.

Presbytery of Mississippi
For the 43 churches in the Presbytery at the close of 2010 there is a total membership of 4,425 from adding the individual congregations compared with 4,485 from Table 4. The average membership is 103 members and the median is 47 members. The five dismissed churches have a membership of 1297 (29.3% of the total membership) with an average membership of 259 members and a median of 361. Three dismissed churches have memberships higher than the median of the whole group and are the three largest churches in the Presbytery. One church is the median of the whole group and one is below. The 38 churches remaining have a total membership of 3128, an average membership of 82 and a median of 43.

According to the Layman article the current total membership of the Presbytery is about 4,300 members from which the dismissed churches will remove 1,400 members or about 32.5%.

Since collecting the data and running the numbers above another presbytery in the area, Central Florida, has dismissed two churches.  I am not going to do the same comprehensive analysis for the presbytery right now (they list 75 churches so it will take more time than I have at the moment) but Table 4 lists a total membership of 27,193 giving an average per congregation of 363 members. The table lists the median church membership at 206. For the two dismissed churches Trinity of Satellite Beach has 877 members and First Presbyterian of Orlando has 3521 members. These 4,398 members account for 16.2% of the presbytery membership.

Discussion
One reason for undertaking this analysis is because these are large enough samples to try to quantify something that some of us have noticed – that the churches leaving the PC(USA) are on average larger than most of the other churches in the denomination.  With the past pattern of one church from a presbytery here and one from another presbytery there arguments could be made that this was not typical or comparisons were weak.  Now, however, with five churches from one presbytery and nine from another being dismissed in groups there is a more coherent data set.

As I note above, the churches dismissed in this round are larger than the average church in the presbytery based on both the average size and the median. For Tropical Florida the dismissed churches are on average 45% larger (350 versus 242) and for Mississippi 150% larger (259 versus 103). Similarly, the median is 76% and 668% larger for the dismissed churches.

It is worth noting that the average size congregation in the PC(USA) nationally in the 2010 data set is 191 and so while Tropical Florida has a larger average (242) and Mississippi a lower average (103) the average of the churches dismissed from each presbytery are larger than the national average (350 and 259). Similarly, the national median is 95 and all these relationships hold for that measure as well.

What first caught my attention regarding these numbers was the claim that one-third of each presbytery had been dismissed. I have noted previously that one-third/two-thirds splits seem to be one common division in Presbyterian divisions. In this case it is a bit lower than one-third, but still in the neighborhood and so it may hold in this case.

The problems with identifying this at this present time are however numerous. One issue is that additional churches may request dismissal so it is only a snapshot and not a completed process. Another is that while the churches have been dismissed there are likely some members who will be in a continuing church or who will remain in the PC(USA) joining neighboring churches. Another complication is that the dismissed churches are not all leaving together but some are going to ECO and some to the EPC. Finally, is it a reasonable thing to just look at individual presbyteries in isolation and ignore the big picture of the whole denomination.

What we can document from this is the fact that on average the churches that are requesting, and being granted, dismissal are larger churches. I can come up with numerous reasons for this but further work would be necessary to document whether there is one dominant reason. One possible explanation is that conservative churches tend to be more vibrant and viable and therefore be in a better position to attract and retain members. Another possible explanation is that larger churches simply
by virtue of their size are in a better position to strike out on their own, or join a fledgling group like the ECO, while smaller churches are dependent on some of the resources of the larger denominational structure, including monies paid into the pension plan. Those are just two of the several possible explanations.

It is worth noting that this trend does present challenges for the PC(USA). As we see in Tropical Florida it amplifies the membership losses when 16.1% of the churches leaving means that nearly one quarter of the members are dismissed with them. And in each presbytery you will note that the average size of church and the median size dropped after the dismissals.

While churches have been leaving for the EPC for a number of years now the dismissals to ECO have only just begun. It may be too early to reliably consider these numbers so we will see if this trend continues or if it changes with time. We shall see.