In conjunction with the convening of the General Assembly the Office of the General Assembly of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) has released the membership statistics for 2007. While it is tempting to say “same old, same old” and move on, there are a couple of numbers in there to be looked at.
The first item, and one that has bugged me in the past, is that while the number of members and the number of churches has been declining the number of ministers and candidates for minister keeps increasing. Now, the increase in ministers is pretty small this year, only 8 which would be 0.04%. But with more ministers for fewer people and churches will this stretch the resources? Is there a significant number of these ministers going into non-parish ministry?
The second observation is that while there is an increase in the loss rate of members and churches, it is not a spike like some were expecting. Now, that higher rate can be expected to continue for at least this year, but it is only a bit higher than last year. The PC(USA) lost 46,544 members in 2006 and 57,572 members in 2007. That corresponds to a 2.0% versus a 2.5% loss.
But in reflecting on these numbers I began to wonder how some of the churches that are departing are being accounted for. If there is a “true church” remnant that stays PC(USA) I would expect that the number of churches would remain the same and only the loss of members included. What if a church “disaffiliates?” It was not dismissed so if there is no “true church” I would expect that it would fall into the category of “dissolved” which rose from 56 in 2006 to 71 in 2008.
The OGA has issued a press release talking about the numbers. The first thing that jumped out at me was the statement:
Sorry, I’m having trouble with this statement; I can’t make the membership loss numbers come out to 1%. As I say above, the total membership drop is 2.5%.
In the statement PC(USA) Stated Clerk Clifton Kirkpatrick expresses “disappointment” at the loss of members, but he is “encouraged” that giving is up. Let’s look at that.
Contributions for 2006 were $2.133 billion and for 2007 were $2.162 billion, an increase of $29 million. Fair enough. That equates to a contribution increase of 1.4%. But the CPI change for 2006 was 4.1% so inflation adjusted giving was down 2.7%. Things look a little better if you consider giving per church, which increased 2.1% and giving per member which increased 4.0%, almost at the rate of inflation.
Interestingly, the Presbyterian Church in America just released their membership statistics at their GA earlier this month. (Please remember, I use the PCA numbers because in general PC(USA) churches that depart do not go there.)
In 2007 the PCA grew from 1648 to 1666 churches, an increase of 1.1%. Similarly, membership grew from 338,873 to 342041, an increase of 0.9%. (2006 Statistics, 2007 Numbers in the clerks report)
I’ll tackle some of these implications another time, but for now the decline in the PC(USA) continues unabated.
I think you also have to factor in the changing economy when looking at giving. While these are 2007 stats, the recession was just starting at the end of the year.
Speaking for myself, I had to reduce my pledge to my church after my employer announced no raise for this year (I’d planned for it when pledging).
Hi Mark-
You are correct. The increase in giving is in light of not just a decline in membership, but the tightness of peoples’ budgets. And it looks like it will be more of a pressure in the 2008 economy.
Interestingly, I have spent the day in the GA Budget committee where they have been talking today about mission interpretation and special offerings. A fifth special offering has been approved in committee. But the objective it to get members to give more to PC(USA) mission.
I seem to remember a video presentation at a presbytery meeting probably 3 or 4 years ago about the declining number of people going into the ministry. If they were seeing a decline in seminary enrollment then, this decline now would seem to follow. They said in the video that there were more churches with no pastors than there were pastors with no churches. They also said that more seminary graduates were going into other fields of service than into pastoral ministry. Of course, this is all according to my dim memory……. And thank you so much for this live blog at GA. It is very helpful in feeling connected with what is going on there.